Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
